The
Intelligence Cycle is the process by which information
is acquired, converted into intelligence, and made available
to policymakers. Information is raw data from any
source, data that may be fragmentary, contradictory, unreliable,
ambiguous, deceptive, or wrong. Intelligence is
information that has been collected, integrated, evaluated,
analyzed, and interpreted. Finished intelligence is
the final product of the Intelligence Cycle ready to be
delivered to the policymaker.
The
three types of finished intelligence are: basic, current,
and estimative. Basic intelligence provides the fundamental
and factual reference material on a country or issue. Current
intelligence reports on new developments. Estimative intelligence
judges probable outcomes. The three are mutually supportive:
basic intelligence is the foundation on which the other two
are constructed; current intelligence continually updates
the inventory of knowledge; and estimative intelligence
revises overall interpretations of country and issue prospects
for guidance of basic and current intelligence. The World
Factbook, The President's Daily Brief, and the National
Intelligence Estimates are examples of the three types
of finished intelligence.
The
United States has carried on foreign intelligence activities
since the days of George Washington but only since World
War II have they been coordinated on a government-wide basis.
Three programs have highlighted the development of coordinated
basic intelligence since that time: (1) the Joint Army
Navy Intelligence Studies (JANIS), (2) the National
Intelligence Survey (NIS), and (3) The World Factbook.
During
World War II, intelligence consumers realized that the production
of basic intelligence by different components of the US Government
resulted in a great duplication of effort and conflicting
information. The Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941
brought home to leaders in Congress and the executive branch
the need for integrating departmental reports to national
policymakers. Detailed and coordinated information was needed
not only on such major powers as Germany and Japan, but also
on places of little previous interest. In the Pacific Theater,
for example, the Navy and Marines had to launch amphibious
operations against many islands about which information was
unconfirmed or nonexistent. Intelligence authorities resolved
that the United States should never again be caught unprepared.
In
1943, Gen. George B. Strong (G-2), Adm. H. C. Train (Office
of Naval Intelligence - ONI), and Gen. William J. Donovan
(Director of the Office of Strategic Services - OSS) decided
that a joint effort should be initiated. A steering committee
was appointed on 27 April 1943 that recommended the formation
of a Joint Intelligence Study Publishing Board to assemble,
edit, coordinate, and publish the Joint Army Navy Intelligence
Studies (JANIS). JANIS was the first interdepartmental
basic intelligence program to fulfill the needs of the US
Government for an authoritative and coordinated appraisal
of strategic basic intelligence. Between April 1943 and July
1947, the board published 34 JANIS studies. JANIS performed
well in the war effort, and numerous letters of commendation
were received, including a statement from Adm. Forrest Sherman,
Chief of Staff, Pacific Ocean Areas, which said, "JANIS
has become the indispensable reference work for the shore-based
planners."
The
need for more comprehensive basic intelligence in the postwar
world was well expressed in 1946 by George S. Pettee, a noted
author on national security. He wrote in The Future of
American Secret Intelligence (Infantry Journal Press,
1946, page 46) that world leadership in peace requires even
more elaborate intelligence than in war. "The conduct
of peace involves all countries, all human activities - not
just the enemy and his war production."
The
Central Intelligence Agency was established on 26 July 1947
and officially began operating on 18 September 1947. Effective
1 October 1947, the Director of Central Intelligence assumed
operational responsibility for JANIS. On 13 January 1948,
the National Security Council issued Intelligence Directive
(NSCID) No. 3, which authorized the National Intelligence
Survey (NIS) program as a peacetime replacement for the
wartime JANIS program. Before adequate NIS country sections
could be produced, government agencies had to develop more
comprehensive gazetteers and better maps. The US Board on
Geographic Names (BGN) compiled the names; the Department
of the Interior produced the gazetteers; and CIA produced
the maps.
The Hoover Commission's Clark
Committee, set up in 1954 to study the structure and administration
of the CIA, reported to Congress in 1955 that: "The National
Intelligence Survey is an invaluable publication which provides
the essential elements of basic intelligence on all areas of
the world. There will always be a continuing requirement for
keeping the Survey up-to-date." The Factbook was created
as an annual summary and update to the encyclopedic NIS studies.
The first classified Factbook was published in August 1962,
and the first unclassified version was published in June 1971.
The NIS program was terminated in 1973 except for the Factbook,
map, and gazetteer components. The 1975 Factbook was the first
to be made available to the public with sales through the US
Government Printing Office (GPO). The year 2004 marks
the 57th anniversary of the establishment of the Central Intelligence
Agency and the 61st year of continuous basic intelligence support
to the US Government by The World Factbook and its two predecessor
programs.